ارزیابی اقتصادی آب شیرین‌کن‌های ثابت و شناور در سواحل مکران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اقتصادی به کارگیری آب شیرین‌کن‌های ثابت و شناور در سواحل مکران است. با توجه به اینکه روش اسمز معکوس از عملکرد بهتری برخوردار است و اثرات زیست‌محیطی به مراتب پایین‌تری نسبت به سایر روش‌ها دارد، در این مطالعه مبنای بررسی اقتصادی آب شیرین‌کن‌ها بر اساس روش اسمز معکوس است. همچنین با توجه به این که برای پروژه‌های دولتی تنها قیمت نهایی یا به عبارتی دیگر قیمت تمام شده مد نظر است، روش ارزش یکنواخت هزینه‌ها در طول عمر مفید انتخاب شده است.بر اساس اطلاعات دفتر برنامه‌ریزی کلان برق و انرژی وزارت نیرو، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که شیرین‌سازی آب دریا در قالب احداث یک کارخانه (آب شیرین‌کن ثابت) در مقایسه با آب شیرین‌کن شناور دارای صرفه اقتصادی است، به گونه‌ای که هزینه یکنواخت تولید در فناوری آب شیرین‌کن ثابت 2000 و در فناوری آب شیرین‌کن شناور  9700 ریال بر مترمکعب محاسبه شده است. همچنین آزمون‌های تحلیل حساسیت بر اساس نرخ تنزیل، ضریب ظرفیت تولید و نوسانات هزینه سوخت نشان می‌دهد از یک طرف فناوری آب شیرین‌کن شناور نسبت به آب شیرین‌کن ثابت تحت حساسیت بیشتری نسبت به متغیرهای فوق است و از طرف دیگر تغییرات این متغیر اثری بر تغییر اولویت اقتصادی ندارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic evaluation of fixed and floating desalination plants on the shores of Makran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hossein Amiri
  • Mohammad Hossein Karim
Faculty member of Economics, Kharazmi University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Water plays an important role in human life and is one of the first human needs for survival. Therefore, due to population growth and industrialization and therefore the lack of water resources in the world especially in Iran, its supply needs special attention. Currently, 97.5% of the water resources on the planet cannot be used. The main purpose of this study is the economic study of the use of fixed and floating freshwater in Makran beaches. One of the most important methods in this field is the desalination and desalination processes of seawater. Given that for government projects, only the final price or in other words the cost price is considered, the method of levelized cost of production over the useful life has been chosen. According to the information of the Electricity and Energy Master Planning Office of the Ministry of Energy, the results show that the desalination of seawater in the form of building a factory (fixed desalination plant) is more economical compared to the floating desalination plant, in such a way that the levelized cost of production in fixed desalination technology is 2000 and in floating desalination technology is 9700 rials per cubic meter. Also, sensitivity analysis tests based on the discount rate, production capacity coefficient, and escalation rate of fuel cost show that on one hand, floating desalination technology is more sensitive to the above variables than fixed desalination, and on the other hand, the change of this variable has no effect on changing the economic priority. The results show that seawater desalination in the form of a factory (fixed desalination) is economical compared to floating desalination.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Seawater Desalination
  • economic analysis
  • final price
  • Makran beaches
[1] M. Asadi, N.A.S. Abdul Manafi jahromi, Examining the executive framework of desalination and exploitation of sea water, 18871, Islamic Council Research Center, 2023. (In Persian)
[2] A. Ebrahimi, M. Ghanbarian, A. Moridi, Investigation of the structure and technical characteristics of common methods in desalination facilities, in:  Iran Water and Wastewater Engineering and Science Congress, University of Tehran, Tehran, 2015. (In Persian)
[3] I.C. Karagiannis, P.G. Soldatos, Water desalination cost literature: review and assessment, Desalination, 223(1-3) (2008) 448-456.
[4] K. Madani, Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?, Journal of environmental studies sciences, 4 (2014) 315-328.
[5] H. Rouhani, Iran's national security and economic system, 4th ed., Strategic Research Center, Tehran, 2011. (In Persian)
[6] S.A. Mirbagheri, K. Dehghan, M. Aalam, economic analysis of different methods of desalination of salty waters and salty lips based on the amount of energy consumed, in:  Iran Water and Wastewater Engineering and Science Congress, University of Tehran, Tehran, 2015. (In Persian)
[7] A. Gholami, M.H. Jahangir, An overview of the process of sea water desalination by gas hydrate method, in:  The first regional conference on the sea, development, and water resources of the coastal areas of the Persian Gulf, 2014. (In Persian)
[8] K. Hajatpour, I. Moslehi, Investigating the importance of using membrane pre-treatment in sea water treatment plants with reverse osmosis method, in:  National conference on optimal water use in industry, challenges and solutions, Isfahan, 2014. (In Persian)
[9] D.E. Nordell, Forced duty cycling of air conditioning units for load management, IEEE transactions on power systems, 2(4) (1987) 1110-1116.
[10] M. Gustafsson, A. Biel, T. Garling, Outcome-desirability bias in resource management problems, Thinking reasoning, 5(4) (1999) 327-337.
[11] A.M. El-Nashar, Cogeneration for power and desalination—state of the art review, Desalination, 134(1-3) (2001) 7-28.
[12] M.A. El Saie, Y.M.A. El Saie, H. El Gabry, Techno-economic study for combined cycle power generation with desalination plants at Sharm El Sheikh, Desalination, 153(1-3) (2003) 191-198.
[13] T. Younos, K.E. Tulou, Overview of desalination techniques, Journal of Contemporary Water Research Education, 132(1) (2005) 3-10.
[14] P. Lisbona, J. Uche, L. Serra, High-temperature fuel cells for fresh water production, Desalination, 182(1-3) (2005) 471-482.
[15] J. Lindblom, B. Nordell, Underground condensation of humid air for drinking water production and subsurface irrigation, Desalination, 203(1-3) (2007) 417-434.
[16] R. Kamali, S. Mohebinia, Experience of design and optimization of multi-effects desalination systems in Iran, Desalination, 222(1-3) (2008) 639-645.
[17] R. Kamali, A. Abbassi, S.S. Vanini, M.S. Avval, Thermodynamic design and parametric study of MED-TVC, Desalination, 222(1-3) (2008) 596-604.
[18] Z. Gomar, H. Heidary, M. Davoudi, Techno-economics study to select optimum desalination plant for asalouyeh combined cycle power plant in iran, World Academy of Science, Engineering Technology, 51. (2011)
[19] H. Mokhtari, H. Ahmadisedigh, I. Ebrahimi, Comparative 4E analysis for solar desalinated water production by utilizing organic fluid and water, Desalination, 377 (2016) 108-122.
[20] A. Rezaei, A. Naserbeagi, G. Alahyarizadeh, M. Aghaie, Economic evaluation of Qeshm island MED-desalination plant coupling with different energy sources including fossils and nuclear power plants, Desalination, 422 (2017) 101-112.
[21] E. Jones, M. Qadir, M.T. van Vliet, V. Smakhtin, S.-m. Kang, The state of desalination and brine production: A global outlook, Science of the Total Environment, 657 (2019) 1343-1356.
[22] D.E. Abozaid, M.O. Abdelaziz, M.E. Ali, H.A. Shawky, E. Oterkus, Investment efficiency of floating platforms desalination technology in Egypt, Desalination Water Treatment, (In press). (2020)
[23] Y.D. Ahdab, J.H. Lienhard, Chapter 41 - Desalination of brackish groundwater to improve water quality and water supply, in: A. Mukherjee, B.R. Scanlon, A. Aureli, S. Langan, H. Guo, A.A. McKenzie (Eds.) Global Groundwater, Elsevier, 2021, pp. 559-575.
[24] A.V. Nair, V.G. Gude, Desalination and sustainability, in:  Water and Climate Change, Elsevier, 2022, pp. 197-213.
[25] M. Oskounejad, Engineering Economy: Economic Evaluation of industrial projects, 46th ed., Amirkabir University of Technology Publication, Tehran, 2017. (In Persian)
[26] D.G. Newnan, T.G. Eschenbach, J.P. Lavelle, Engineering economic analysis, Oxford University Press, 2004.
[27] S.M. Mousavi, M.B. Ghanbarabadi, N.B. Moghadam, The competitiveness of wind power compared to existing methods of electricity generation in Iran, Energy policy, 42 (2012) 651-656.
[28] G.H. Gessinger, Materials and innovative product development: using common sense, Butterworth-Heinemann, 2009.
[29] S. Reichelstein, A. Rohlfing-Bastian, Levelized product cost: Concept and decision relevance, The Accounting Review, 90(4) (2015) 1653-1682.
[30] U. Eia, Levelized cost and levelized avoided cost of new generation resources in the annual energy outlook 2016, Washington DC, USA, 2016.
[31] M.o. Energy, Planning the structure of electric energy supply and setting up the required information base, 2011. (In Persian)